2013 Oscar Preview and Picks

The Academy Awards will be here soon.  And now it's time to sit down and think about who is going to win the coveted awards this year.   After reviewing over 140 movies in 2012, the thing that really struck me is the lack of the clear runaway favorites in virtually any category.   In a year that there may not have been the one or two movies that were clearly above the rest, there a few that are neck and neck.  It will be interesting what kind of mood Oscar will be in this year.

So on this list, we'll look at 6 major categories and make three picks.  First my pick is for who I would pick in that category.  Second, who I think will win, and third, the "dark horse." The one to watch who may be off the radar.  We'll look at Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, and Director. So let's go.

Best Picture

My Pick Would Be  -   Zero Dark Thirty.  This movie is probably the best movie of the year, but it more than likely will have problems with the Academy.  Much of this is not the kind of political correctness for Hollywood Academy voters, and that will more than likely keep it out of the big winners circle.  But this is sensational movie making in every regard.  This movie is brilliantly told, well acted and exceedingly interesting.

The Winner Will Be -  Les Miserables.   Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back sometimes, and loves honoring art, with more art.  They did is last year, and got it right with the silent gem The Artist.  This of course is long time play, now a big time movie.  In a year where many of the nominees are controversial for various reasons, this is not. This is groundbreaking and very fresh in its approach.  Les Miz, has a ton of nominations, and should win a few.

The Dark Horse -  Silver Linings Playbook.  If Oscar is in the right mood, this movie could be a big story this year.  It's the first movie in 40 years that is nominated in the Best Picture category, and all four acting categories.   This movie seems to have some momentum at the right time. Under the right circumstances this movie could really make a lot of noise.


Best Actor

My Pick Would Be -  Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln.   I can't see any reason why he shouldn't win his third Oscar.  He is brilliant in every single facet and this performance will be talked about for years to come.  Incredibly prepared and done to perfection, in a movie that had to have it.  The whole movie, every frame depended on Lewis.  He was amazing.

The Winner Will Be -  Daniel Day Lewis.  For all the reasons mentioned.

The Dark Horse -  Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook.   If Oscar is feeling younger and feels a need to usher in a new era of Hollywood star, Cooper could be the guy to lead the charge.  He is terrific in this movie and is a big Hollywood draw.  It has he potential, be it small, to be the upset of the night.   I would have little problem seeing him win as I am a big fan of this movie.

Best Actress

My Pick Would Be -  Jennifer Lawrence from Silver Linings Playbook.   She was fantastic in this movie and really showed what she could do in the presence of a great script and strong actors around her.   This is long way from The Hunger Games.  She was the real separator for this movie, as she elevated it to a higher level that it would have been without her in her vital role.   This is a great performance. 

The Winner Will Be -  Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty.   This may be the bone that this brilliant movie gets from the Academy.  It is undeniable that this is a huge role, and she is great.  This is by far the largest female role in any movie this year, and Chastain delivers.  This way Zero Dark Thirty can be honored, without being honored.  She is great.  She would deserve it. 

The Dark Horse -  Quvenzahane Wallis for Beasts Of The Southern Wild.  Hollywood might really like to have this completely charming 9 year old win for buzz, and what would be unprecedented press coverage, in a movie that was universally loved by the Academy that no one else saw.

Supporting Actor 

My Pick Would Be - Christoph Waltz from Django Unchained.  I think this is the second best performance of the year in any category behind Lewis.  Waltz is simply brilliant in this role as a polite, but diabolical bounty hunter in the Tarantino smash hit.  With events in the real world, this movie is too incorrect to be honored this year I feel, and that is his biggest hurdle.  He already has an Oscar from Inglorious Basterds from 2 years ago. Amazing there, better here.   

The Winner Will Be -  Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln.  Lincoln is going to win a few, and this might be one that's a stretch.   But I think the temptation will be too much for him not to win. He's a good guy, a big draw in a good movie.  It's probably his turn.  Truth is, I liked him far more in Hope Springs last summer, as he was terrific.  Jones is great in this really good movie, but his performance is not near Waltz's.  Not even close and not near as demanding.

The Dark Horse -  Alan Arkin for Argo.   Hollywood loved this movie a lot.   He plays a Hollywood producer and Hollywood loves stories about themselves.  He is pretty fun and Argo is going to win a few, and this could be one.

Supporting Actress

My Pick Would Be -  Sally Field from Lincoln.   Big role, where she gained 30 pounds to play Lincolns wife Mary Todd Lincoln.  She holds her own in many vital scenes with Lewis.  Plus, with no disrespect intended, this category has no real clear winner and a field that is not nearly as strong as usual.

The Winner Will Be  -  Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables.  She lost 30 pounds for this movie.  First off, a very small role as far as actual screen time is concerned. But many times an Oscar can be won with a huge single scene and she's got one.  Her constant 5 minute one camera shot emotively singing the movies most powerful song was breath taking.  It may be the best movie scene of the year.  It will be the deal sealer for her.

The Dark Horse -  Helen Hunt for The Sessions.  This is a very daring role for a women near 50.  She spends much of her time in the movie completely naked, and takes on a role you seldom see in any movie.  Hollywood many times respects daring and this is.   She plays a "sex surrogate" in a really good movie.  Hunt can be very good and she was the best choice for this role. This could be one of the big upsets of the night, from a little known movie. 

Director

My Pick Would Be -  Ang Lee for Life Of Pi.  He always takes on projects that can't be done, and does them.  This was one of those.  Huge book, big story, beyond incredibly difficult movie making. Without him, this movie would have been cartoonish. 

The Winner Will Be -  Steven Spielberg for Lincoln.   This move is going to win a few, and he more than likely will. But in fairness, he is not to Lincoln, as Lee is to Pi.

The Dark Horse -  David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook.   You take a little story, with not much fanfare, and turn it into one of the years best movies with tons of nominations.  And you make Jennifer Lawrence more that she has ever been.  Bradley Cooper too.  And somehow get Jacki Weaver nominated, and Robert DeNiro nominated yet again.   Amazingly well done.

Feel free to e-mail me your opinions  scott@wqmx.com